Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 30,322
2 Florida 27,404
3 Arizona 26,969
4 Mississippi 25,351
5 Alabama 22,933
6 New York 22,233
7 Georgia 21,689
8 New Jersey 21,431
9 South Carolina 21,232
10 Nevada 20,680
11 Texas 20,280
12 Tennessee 19,968
13 Rhode Island 19,701
14 District of Columbia 19,084
15 Arkansas 18,147
16 Massachusetts 18,096
17 Iowa 17,322
18 Delaware 17,168
19 Maryland 17,089
20 Illinois 17,038
21 California 16,539
22 Idaho 16,368
23 Nebraska 16,205
24 Utah 15,004
25 Connecticut 14,425
26 North Carolina 14,344
27 Virginia 12,988
28 Oklahoma 12,804
29 Indiana 12,664
30 Kansas 12,558
31 Wisconsin 12,556
32 North Dakota 12,132
33 South Dakota 12,084
34 Minnesota 11,942
35 Missouri 11,905
36 New Mexico 11,422
37 Michigan 10,490
38 Pennsylvania 10,290
39 Kentucky 9,854
40 Ohio 9,581
41 Washington 9,492
42 Colorado 9,430
43 Puerto Rico 9,032
44 Alaska 7,285
45 Wyoming 5,992
46 Oregon 5,731
47 Montana 5,702
48 New Hampshire 5,184
49 West Virginia 5,058
50 Hawaii 4,111
51 Maine 3,187
52 Vermont 2,463

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Mississippi 340
2 Georgia 265
3 North Dakota 260
4 Alabama 234
5 Tennessee 225
6 Texas 218
7 Puerto Rico 217
8 Idaho 212
9 Florida 194
10 Iowa 192
11 Arkansas 186
12 Nevada 181
13 Kentucky 180
14 Missouri 175
15 Louisiana 168
16 Oklahoma 164
17 California 156
18 Illinois 156
19 South Carolina 153
20 Hawaii 148
21 North Carolina 143
22 Nebraska 135
23 Virginia 134
24 Wisconsin 132
25 South Dakota 124
26 Utah 121
27 Kansas 119
28 Indiana 116
29 Maryland 112
30 Arizona 104
31 Alaska 101
32 Minnesota 94
33 Rhode Island 94
34 District of Columbia 92
35 Montana 88
36 Ohio 83
37 West Virginia 80
38 Wyoming 78
39 Washington 77
40 New Mexico 71
41 Michigan 63
42 Delaware 62
43 Oregon 56
44 Colorado 53
45 Pennsylvania 53
46 Massachusetts 42
47 New York 32
48 New Jersey 28
49 Maine 21
50 Connecticut 15
51 New Hampshire 11
52 Vermont 5

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,793
2 New York 1,668
3 Massachusetts 1,289
4 Connecticut 1,250
5 Louisiana 997
6 Rhode Island 970
7 District of Columbia 852
8 Mississippi 735
9 Michigan 664
10 Arizona 644
11 Illinois 636
12 Delaware 611
13 Maryland 607
14 Pennsylvania 594
15 Indiana 473
16 Florida 467
17 South Carolina 466
18 Georgia 451
19 Alabama 402
20 Texas 388
21 Nevada 381
22 New Mexico 350
23 Ohio 336
24 Colorado 331
25 Iowa 322
26 Minnesota 317
27 New Hampshire 314
28 California 298
29 Virginia 285
30 Washington 252
31 Missouri 245
32 North Carolina 238
33 Tennessee 215
34 Arkansas 212
35 Kentucky 197
36 Nebraska 194
37 Wisconsin 184
38 Oklahoma 179
39 South Dakota 177
40 North Dakota 175
41 Idaho 167
42 Kansas 145
43 Utah 119
44 Puerto Rico 117
45 Oregon 97
46 Maine 95
47 West Virginia 94
48 Vermont 92
49 Montana 83
50 Wyoming 58
51 Alaska 36
52 Hawaii 31

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Mississippi 10
2 Nevada 10
3 Arizona 8
4 Florida 7
5 Louisiana 7
6 South Carolina 7
7 Texas 7
8 Georgia 5
9 Arkansas 4
10 Idaho 4
11 Puerto Rico 4
12 Tennessee 4
13 Alabama 3
14 California 3
15 Iowa 3
16 Kentucky 3
17 North Carolina 3
18 Oklahoma 3
19 District of Columbia 2
20 Indiana 2
21 Massachusetts 2
22 Missouri 2
23 Montana 2
24 Nebraska 2
25 New Mexico 2
26 Ohio 2
27 Washington 2
28 Hawaii 1
29 Illinois 1
30 Kansas 1
31 Maryland 1
32 Michigan 1
33 Minnesota 1
34 New Hampshire 1
35 North Dakota 1
36 Oregon 1
37 Pennsylvania 1
38 Rhode Island 1
39 South Dakota 1
40 Utah 1
41 Virginia 1
42 West Virginia 1
43 Wisconsin 1
44 Alaska 0
45 Colorado 0
46 Connecticut 0
47 Delaware 0
48 Maine 0
49 New Jersey 0
50 New York 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 140,819 1 99
Lafayette Florida 134,054 2 99
Lake Tennessee 115,308 3 99
Lee Arkansas 111,324 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 104,423 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 35,962 144 95
Richland South Carolina 23,285 406 87
Orange California 14,150 938 70
York South Carolina 13,852 972 69
Pierce Washington 7,733 1718 45

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,375 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,096 2 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,517 4 99
Neshoba Mississippi 3,331 5 99
Richland South Carolina 431 674 78
Davidson Tennessee 349 828 73
Orange California 262 1050 66
Pierce Washington 186 1333 57
York South Carolina 114 1694 46

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons